Fauci warns that the virus could disrupt life in the US until "maybe even towards the end of 2021".
The United States shouldn't expect normalization "well into 2021, maybe even towards the end of 2021," said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation's leading infectious disease expert, on Friday.
In an interview with Andrea Mitchell Reports on MSNBC, Dr. Fauci asked when people would most likely be able to do things again that they had done before the pandemic, such as going to an indoor cinema "with impunity". While a vaccine may be available by the end of the year, he said, "If you mobilize the vaccination distribution and the majority or more of the population are vaccinated and protected, it probably won't happen until 2000, in mid or late 2021."
Dr. Fauci was also asked for comments he made on a panel discussion at Harvard Medical School on Thursday. He said, "We have to squat and get through this fall and winter because it won't be easy." Ms. Mitchell pointed out that this contradicted what President Trump had said at the White House the same day that the country had "rounded off" the latest turn against the virus.
"I don't have to agree," said Dr. Fauci on Mr. Trump's optimistic reading of the situation.
"We have a plateau of around 40,000 cases per day and the number of deaths is around 1,000." He expressed concern that Labor Day might increase that number again, as Memorial Day and July Fourth had done earlier.
But in any case, he said, “What we don't want to see is the fall season, when people spend more time indoors – and that's not good for a respiratory virus – you don't want to start with a baseline, which is so high. "
As of Thursday, the previous week had an average of 35,629 cases per day, a 16 percent decrease from the average two weeks earlier, according to a Times database. The number of cases remains high in much of the country, although reports of new cases have fallen significantly since late July, when the country averaged well over 60,000 a day.
But even as many of the country's most populous states saw tremendous improvement – and the Northeast kept case reports low – new infections spiked in parts of the Midwest and South in late summer.
Although the number of spring deaths was still well below its peak, it averaged 700 a day in mid-September, more than in early July.
From Asia to Africa, China promotes its vaccine candidates to make friends.
China is most likely months away from mass producing a vaccine that is safe for public use. But the country is seizing the prospect of the drug's discovery on a magic offensive aimed at repairing damaged ties and bringing friends closer to regions China deems important to its interests.
Latin American and Caribbean nations are getting loans to buy the drug, and Bangladesh is getting over 100,000 free doses from a Chinese company.
In the Philippines, where China competes with the United States for influence, President Rodrigo Duterte told lawmakers in July that he had asked China's leader Xi Jinping for help with vaccines. He also said he would not confront China over its South China Sea claims.
A day later, Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for China's foreign ministry, said China was ready to give the Philippines priority access to a vaccine.
China's vaccination pledges, in addition to earlier shipments of masks and ventilators around the world, will help him distinguish himself as a responsible actor and could also help him fight back allegations that the ruling Communist Party made for its initial missteps Coronavirus should be held accountable first surfaced in China in December.
The Trump administration has flatly attacked Beijing for its management of the virus crisis and allegations that China-led hackers tried to steal vaccine research in order to gain an advantage. The Justice Department charged two Chinese suspects of cracking down on pharmaceutical companies in July.
China leads the world in the race for a Covid-19 vaccine, and four of the eight late-phase clinical trials are in Chinese vaccines. The country began testing experimental vaccines on soldiers and employees of state-owned companies in July, and the testing has been tacitly expanded to include healthcare and aviation workers. Chinese vaccine manufacturers have built factories that can produce hundreds of thousands of doses.
The United States has three vaccine candidates in late-stage trials. Pfizer said they could apply for emergency clearance as early as October, and Moderna hopes to have a vaccine by the end of the year. AstraZeneca, a British-Swedish company that has received funding from the US government for the development of its vaccine, this week canceled its late-stage worldwide trials on suspicion of side effects in a participant.
However, Chinese vaccine companies that have gone overseas to conduct clinical trials have also sparked controversy over fears that local residents will be treated like guinea pigs. And some policy experts are concerned about the leverage that China may have on countries that accept vaccines.
"Should we be suspicious or should we be grateful?" asked Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, an academic at Universitas Islam Indonesia who researches China's foreign policy in Indonesia.
The other way the virus will kill: hunger.
Long before the coronavirus penetrated her village in the rough southeast of Afghanistan, Halima Bibi knew the nagging fear of hunger. It was an inexorable source of fear as she struggled to feed her four children.
Her husband was making about $ 5 a day and using a wheelbarrow to move produce from a local market to nearby homes. Most days he brought home a loaf of bread, potatoes, and beans for dinner.
But when the virus hit in March, took the lives of her neighbors and closed the market, her husband's income dropped to about $ 1 a day. Most evenings he only brought home bread. Some nights he came back with nothing.
"We hear our children screaming from hunger, but there is nothing we can do," said Ms. Bibi over the phone from a hospital in Kabul where her 6-year-old daughter was being treated for severe malnutrition. "This is not just our situation, it is a reality for most of the families we live in."
As the world economy absorbs the most punishing reversal of wealth since the Great Depression, hunger rises. According to the United Nations World Food Program, the number of potentially life-threatening so-called food insecurity in developing countries is expected to double to 265 million this year.
Most vulnerable communities are concentrated in South Asia and Africa, particularly countries that are already facing problems including military conflict, extreme poverty and climate-related problems such as drought, floods and soil erosion.
How China brought nearly 200 million students back to school.
With a clear blue sky, almost 2,000 students gathered at Hanyang No. 1 high school in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the coronavirus first appeared.
Medical workers stood guard at the school entrances and recorded temperatures. Administrative officials checked students' travel reports and the results of coronavirus tests. Local Communist Party cadres kept vigil and ensured that teachers followed detailed hygiene instructions and displayed an "anti-epidemic spirit."
"I'm not worried," said a music teacher at the school, Yang Meng, in an interview. "Wuhan is the safest place now."
While countries around the world struggle to reopen schools safely this fall, the Chinese Communist Party is harnessing the power of its authoritarian system to provide personal learning to approximately 195 million kindergarten through 12th grade students in public schools.
It has mobilized battalions of local officials and party cadres to inspect classrooms, use apps and other technology to monitor students and staff, and restrict their movements. It has even instructed parents to stay away from germs for fear of the spread of germs.
China's leader Xi Jinping said in a speech on Tuesday that the country's progress in fighting the virus, including the opening of schools, "has fully demonstrated the clear superiority of the Communist Party's leadership and our socialist system."
In many ways, China is using the same persistent model of reopening schools that it used to control the virus. To stop the epidemic, authorities put strict lockdowns and used invasive technology to track residents. This sparked public anger in some places and concerns about the erosion of privacy and civil liberties.
In schools, government efforts met with similar frustrations in some places. Teachers, who sometimes act as health workers, checking for fevers and isolating sick students, say they are exhausted from the new protocols. Students have complained that some policies, such as closings on university campuses, are excessive.
"The Chinese system moves by itself," said Yong Zhao, a researcher at the University of Kansas who studied education in China. "The system is run like a military: it just goes like that, no matter what anyone thinks."
A C.D.C. The study looked at a possible link between eating out and exposure to the virus.
A new study suggests that dining at restaurants increased the risk of exposure to the virus for some customers. However, several researchers said the links between getting infected with the virus and eating should be viewed with caution, as the study did not differentiate between customers who dined in indoor or outdoor facilities and did not rely on contact tracing.
The study, published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, analyzed 314 patients and found that those who tested positive for the virus had eaten at a restaurant twice as often in the past two weeks as those who tested negative .
"We want people to understand how society is opening up again, where the risks for Covid-19 lie," said Dr. Wesley Self, physician and researcher at Vanderbilt University and author of the study.
Dr. Self said he believed, in hindsight, that the researchers should have distinguished between indoor and outdoor dining.
Governor Andrew M. Cuomo announced Wednesday that New York City will lift its ban on indoor dining on September 30 to allow restaurants with a one-quarter capacity to operate indoors. In July, Governor and Mayor Bill de Blasio halted a plan to resume eating indoors, citing concerns about recurrence of the virus. (The conditions for outdoor dining are considered less risky.)
Last month, data from a number of states and cities showed that the community's outbreaks had centered on restaurants and bars. Contact tracers in Maryland found that 12 percent of new cases in July were from restaurants and in Colorado 9 percent of outbreaks were from bars and restaurants. Patients in the new study were treated in 11 hospitals in California, Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Utah, and Washington.
In interpreting the results of the new C.D.C. Study.
"The way people have interpreted this study is that going to a restaurant causes Covid," said Zack Cooper, associate professor of public health at the Yale School of Public Health. “That's not what this type of study is supposed to show. This shows that people with Covid were more likely to be in restaurants. "
Dr. Cooper said dining in restaurants is likely associated with an increased risk as it would bring people close to others who are not exercising caution in limiting their exposure to the virus. He said researchers need to be careful about interpreting statistical results given the challenges facing the general public in order to study the risks of joint activities.
In an interview with CNN on Friday, Dr. Fauci asked what the results of the study mean for people who want to eat out. He said he wouldn't completely rule out going to a restaurant.
"But," he said, "restaurant owners should be aware that, particularly if you are in an area where you have significant levels of infection, you will not dine either outdoors or 100 indoors." percentage capacity. "
Canada reports zero Covid-19 deaths within 24 hours.
Canada reported zero Covid-19-related deaths within 24 hours, according to the government on Friday evening, although the number of new cases in the country has slowly increased as restrictions ease and schools reopen for personal instruction.
According to the government, there were at least 135,600 confirmed coronavirus cases in Canada as of Friday night. The number of new cases reported every day has fallen significantly from a high of almost 3,000 cases in early May and is now averaging a few hundred per day. As of Thursday, the average number of new daily cases rose nearly 50 percent from a few weeks earlier.
Four Canadian provinces – Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec – are responsible for more than 4,000 of the 4,439 cases the country reported in the past week. These provinces were also responsible for all 23 Covid-19-related deaths reported during the same period. This week, Ontario, Canada's most populous province, announced that it would be a four-week "hiatus" before considering easing restrictions or allowing further economic reopening.
In total, at least 9,163 deaths in the country have been linked to Covid-19. Quebec makes up more than half of this with 5,774, followed by Ontario with 2,813.
Canada previously reported zero Covid-19 deaths within 24 hours, although a measurement may be inaccurate due to delays in reporting. The average number of deaths reported daily over the past week is three.
In contrast, the average number of daily reported deaths for the past week in the United States was 702 on Thursday.
Colleges are hot spots today as nursing homes and meat packers used to be in the pandemic.
It started out as a trickle of coronavirus infections when students arrived for the fall semester. Soon that trickle turned into a torrent, and dozens and sometimes hundreds of new cases were reported on campus every day.
Now the stream feels like a flood. In a survey by the New York Times, American colleges saw more than 36,000 additional infections last week, bringing the total to 88,000 cases since the pandemic began.
Not all of these cases are new, and the increase is partly due to more schools starting to report the results of further tests. But the Times poll of 1,600 colleges also shows how far the contagion has spread, with schools of all types and sizes in every state reporting infections.
Only about 60 cases on campus have resulted in death – mostly of college staff – and only a small number have resulted in hospitalizations. However, public health experts say the rising number also underscores an emerging reality: colleges and universities as a category have become hot spots for virus transmission, much like hospitals, nursing homes, and meat packers used to do.
Hoping to salvage a sense of normalcy – along with lost income from housing fees and extra-state tuition fees – many schools invested heavily in health efforts to get at least some students back on campus.
But breakouts have forced course corrections after corrections.
New York State University at Oneonta sent students home after the virus got out of control in less than two weeks, with more than 500 cases. And the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign has one of the most comprehensive security plans in place, requiring more than 40,000 students to be tested for the virus twice a week and banned from campus buildings without the app checking to see if the last test was negative was. However, some students continued partying after getting a positive test result and hundreds were infected.
The number of new cases at the university was reduced again through a lockdown. But its boom put its metropolitan areas at the top of the list of US territories with the most cases per capita, as did the tops at universities in Oxford, Miss., And Athens, Ga.
Officials in the Oregon state correctional system began this week to get hundreds of inmates out of the way of the wildfires that are sneaking toward some of their prisons. However, introducing large groups of prisoners to different facilities can expose them to another risk – infection with the virus.
Juan Chavez, an attorney for the Oregon Justice Resource Center, a not-for-profit legal advocacy group, said relocated inmates slept on closely spaced mattresses, but it's "their poison" between the virus and the fires. He added that he feared the relocated inmates could contribute to a superspreader event for the virus in the prisons.
However, there are few other options for the Oregon Department of Corrections, which has evacuated four prisons to date.
Inmates are "placed with others from their home facility whenever possible," and officers are aware of the potential for the virus to spread, said Jennifer Black, a prison system spokeswoman.
The virus has already devastated the population of the state prison. In June, the governor converted the sentences of 57 inmates who were susceptible to the virus. According to the department's records, there have been 829 confirmed cases in facilities of the prison system, including staff and inmates. Six people died.
At Oregon State Penitentiary, 36 employees and 143 inmates tested positive.
Helene Cooper, a Pentagon correspondent for the New York Times, was selected to participate in a vaccine study for Moderna, a Massachusetts-based biotech company. Ms. Cooper, who covered the 2014 Ebola outbreak for The Times, shared her experience in a personal essay. Some excerpts follow.
"I signed up for a Covid vaccine study," I wrote to a group of friends, all reporters with smart mouths. But an answer made me pause.
"I admire your commitment to the cause," said my friend Mark Mazzetti. However, it was clear to him in his text: “You have to be very careful about your underlying condition. You could get a placebo and hang out in hot spots. "
I hadn't thought of the placebo portion of the vaccine study when I signed up. I'm a type 1 diabetic – a chronic autoimmune disease that I've had since I was 15 with asthma, so I'm firmly in the high risk category. Dr. Fauci made it clear for himself in early March when I met him in the green room for NBC's "Meet the Press".
"What if I get Covid?" I asked him.
"I'm not saying you are a dead duck," he replied, "but I cannot stress enough that you really don't have to get it."
Last Wednesday I arrived at George Washington University Hospital at the appointed time at all my triple risk: black woman, type 1 diabetic, asthmatic. I hadn't slept the night before.
France is facing a worrying spike in cases, the government said Friday, warning that new cases are rising rapidly and hospital admissions are increasing.
Many expected new restrictions, especially after the government's Scientific Council announced earlier this week that the authorities would have to take "tough measures".
However, authorities did not announce any new rules and instead promised to improve the country's immense testing program, which has been plagued by delays in recent weeks, and urged the French to continue social distancing measures.
The country has registered around 54,000 new cases in the last 7 days – fewer than Spain but far more than other neighboring countries such as Italy or Germany. Almost 31,000 people in France have died from the virus.
There were nearly 10,000 new confirmed cases on Thursday, a record since the epidemic began. The increase is partly due to widespread testing, but the positivity rate for those tests has also increased – it was 5.4 percent this week from 1.5 in late July – meaning the virus is picking up speed.
French Prime Minister Jean Castex said in a televised address on Friday that the authorities were particularly concerned about a renewed increase in the number of hospitalizations, especially among the elderly.
“This shows that there is no Maginot Line,” Castex said, referring to national fortifications built in the 1930s. While the virus still mainly spreads among younger people, it "inevitably" reaches vulnerable populations.
In other developments around the world:
Myanmar has suspended half of its largest city, Yangon, and stopped travel between regions to stop the virus from spreading. Myanmar leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi called on the public to follow health protocols in a nationwide televised address on Thursday. According to a Times database, the number of confirmed cases has quintupled in less than three weeks, reaching 2,422 on Friday with 14 deaths.
India According to a Times database, another record for new cases was broken on Saturday, with 97,750 reported. The previous record on Friday was 96,551.
North Korea has deployed crack troops along the border to prevent smugglers from bringing the coronavirus into its isolated and malnourished population, United States Supreme General in South Korea General Robert B. Abrams said Thursday. North Korea insists it has not confirmed a single case of Covid-19. However, outside experts are skeptical, citing the country's rundown public health capabilities and the long border it shares with China, where the epidemic first broke out.
New studies underline the severity of the UK upswing.
A series of studies published on Friday provided the strongest evidence yet that the coronavirus is rising again in the UK, suggesting the country could follow other European nations if it sees significant new spikes of the virus.
Scientists at Imperial College London said the prevalence of coronavirus infections in England doubled every eight days from late August to early September, significantly accelerating the spread.
The scientists tested a random sample of 150,000 people and estimated that the so-called reproductive number – a measure of how many people, on average, a single patient infects – was 1.7, indicating a growing outbreak. An R number below 1 would indicate a fading breakout.
The government's own scientific advisory group offered a more conservative estimate of the spread of the virus – they said the UK's R-number was between 1 and 1.2 – but still said that "the epidemic is growing".
The UK government reported 3,539 new daily cases on Friday, raising its seven-day average well above 2,500, a level last seen in May. The total number of cases has exceeded 361,000, with more than 41,600 deaths.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced this week that the government would ban gatherings of more than six people. But with students now returning to school and the British socializing more in cool weather, scientists said that may not be enough.
"This is a major blow to the government's strategy to contain the spread of Covid-19," said Simon Clarke, Associate Professor at the University of Reading, of the study by Imperial College London.
Mr Johnson has encouraged people to go back to work, eat out at restaurants, patronize pubs, and send children back to school. Many Britons have also remained resistant to wearing face masks in crowded places.
The new UK contact tracing app will launch in England and Wales on September 24th, the Johnson government announced on Friday. The government had previously been criticized for the long delay; earlier versions were scrapped months ago.
Florida will open bars again on Monday and people in Puerto Rico can go back to the beach.
Halsey Beshears, Florida's secretary for the Department of Business and Professional Regulation, announced on Twitter on Thursday that the state would be operating bars at half capacity starting Monday. As of June, he overturned an executive order that banned drinking in bars when the state was booming.
Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, had indicated earlier Thursday that his government would not only allow bars and restaurants to reopen soon, but would also ban future closings.
"I think we probably just need to have it so everyone knows they can operate," he said. "The clasps are just completely off the table, because it is difficult to plan when you think the sword of Damocles is hanging over your head."
On Friday, Mr DeSantis announced that the state's two largest counties, Miami-Dade and Broward, will move into phase two of reopening on Monday to pave the way for schools to get students back to classrooms earlier than expected.
Miami-Dade County's Mayor Carlos Gimenez and the county's principal Alberto Carvalho appeared at the news conference with the governor on Friday. Mr Carvalho said he expected an announcement of the physical opening of schools before the end of the month; Previously, he had set a schedule to bring the students back by October 5th.
About 51 percent of parents of public school students have told the district they want to send their children back, he said, adding that "many schools likely won't be six feet away".
Mr Gimenez, whose county has been hardest hit by the state, said his administration will start looking at businesses that could now reopen under certain restrictions, including movie theaters and bowling alleys, although he reiterated that there were no bars and nightclubs would give. On Wednesday he said he did not expect to reopen them "until we get a vaccine".
"We're not out of the woods yet, but we're getting closer," he said on Friday.
In Puerto Rico, Governor Wanda Vázquez on Thursday eased some of the island's tough restrictions and cited a recent drop in cases. Ms. Vázquez lifted a lock that had forced people to stay home on Sundays and reopened the beaches to everyone. It also approved the reopening of gyms, cinemas and casinos with a capacity of 25 percent.
Bars and nightclubs will remain closed and there will be a night curfew.
The United States is commemorating September 11th at a different time of shocking loss.
The outbreak also changed a moment to honor the dead. Although the names of the victims echoed across the square and bells rang in New York, as in previous years, there was no stage before those who came to mourn.
Some of America's most famous politicians were in attendance, including Vice President Mike Pence and Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic presidential candidate, but all wore masks in addition to their usual ribbons and pins. They exchanged elbow bumps and then distanced each other a meter as they stood for the national anthem.
It has been 19 years since terrorist hijacked passenger jets crashed into the World Trade Center and Pentagon and crashed into a field in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. Nearly 3,000 people were killed in the deadliest attack in the United States, around 2,700 of them in the country's New York history.
The U.S. death toll from the pandemic has far exceeded that of September 11, 2001. More than 23,000 people have died from the virus in New York City alone.
F.D.A. Regulators defend their integrity and hint at potential disruptions.
In an opinion column published Thursday in USA Today, eight leading regulators in the Food and Drug Administration pledged to uphold the scientific integrity of their work and defend the agency's independence. The column warned that "if the agency's credibility is lost due to real or perceived disruptions, people will not rely on the agency's security warnings".
The promise made by career scientists in the federal government came amid growing concerns about the role the White House played in emergency approvals for coronavirus therapies, including convalescent plasma and the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, which the agency later revoked.
The specter of political arm twisting has increased as several drug manufacturers conducted large, late-stage vaccine trials this summer. President Trump told reporters on Monday, "We will have a vaccine very soon, maybe even before a very special date."
This election day schedule has been largely questioned by leading government health officials, who deemed vaccine approval unlikely by early November.
The USA Today statement was drafted in large part because of concerns about political influence over the FDA, including the White House, according to senior administrative officials familiar with the effort.
A new stimulus plan before election day appears even less likely.
The prospect of additional incentives to tackle the pre-election coronavirus pandemic's devastating toll darkened significantly on Thursday when a weakened Republican plan in the Senate failed in a partisan vote.
Democrats unanimously voted to prevent the proposal from moving forward, calling it insufficient to meet the growing need for federal aid, indicating a lack of political will to reach an agreement, even if the federal aid is critical to individuals and businesses has dried up.
It was an almost partisan vote, the outcome of which was never questioned. The proposal was a fraction of the $ 1 trillion plan the Republicans had offered in negotiations with Democrats, who are asking for more than twice as much.
Failure to compromise would place millions of unemployed Americans in potentially dire straits as they deplete unemployment benefits and states run out of the additional funds that Mr Trump directed to the unemployed last month by order of the executive branch. It would also hit a large number of small business owners who saw a sharp drop in sales and had little prospect of a return to normal levels in the coming months.
"Zusammen mit einer Pandemie von Covid-19 haben wir eine Pandemie der Politik", sagte Senator Pat Roberts, Republikaner von Kansas. "Mit Blick auf das Haus – und auch auf unsere Kollegen auf der anderen Seite des Ganges – ist es eine Art Sackgasse."
Er sprach, nachdem die Maßnahme mit 52 zu 47 Stimmen gescheitert war und die 60, die für den Fortschritt erforderlich gewesen wären, nicht erreicht hatte.
Nach einer langen Verzögerung wird Großbritannien diesen Monat eine Kontaktverfolgungs-App einführen.
Mit der neuen Anwendung können Benutzer QR-Codes scannen, wenn sie Gaststätten besuchen, und mithilfe der Technologie von Apple und Google andere Smartphones in der Nähe erkennen.
Matt Hancock, britischer Gesundheitsminister, sagte in einer Erklärung am Freitag, dass die App ein wichtiges Instrument zur Eindämmung der Ausbreitung des Coronavirus sein würde.
"Wir müssen jedes uns zur Verfügung stehende Werkzeug verwenden, um die Ausbreitung des Virus zu kontrollieren, einschließlich modernster Technologie", sagte er. "Der Start der App im Laufe dieses Monats in England und Wales ist ein entscheidender Moment und wird uns dabei helfen, den Virus zu einem kritischen Zeitpunkt einzudämmen."
Wie können die Antworten der Länder verglichen werden? Stellen Sie sich das Virus wie einen Marathon vor.
Was ist die fairste Erwartung, wie schlimm die Pandemie in den USA hätte sein sollen?
In seinem Morgen-Newsletter sprach David Leonhardt mit Donald McNeil, dem Reporter der New York Times, der häufig im Podcast „The Daily“ erschien, um über das Coronavirus zu sprechen.
Herr Leonhardt schreibt:
Donald macht einen faszinierenden Punkt: Betrachten Sie nicht nur Schnappschüsse wie die Zahl der Todesopfer pro Kopf eines Landes. "Es ist nicht fair, einen Zeitpunkt auszuwählen und zu sagen:" Wie geht es uns? ", Schreibt er. „Sie können nur beurteilen, wie gut die Länder abschneiden, wenn Sie den Zeitfaktor hinzufügen“ – das heißt, als das Virus an einem bestimmten Ort zum ersten Mal explodierte und was seitdem passiert ist.
Die Pandemie sei wie ein Marathon mit gestaffelten Startzeiten.
Das Virus verbreitete sich in Europa früher als in Nordamerika. Ein Großteil Europas konnte es zunächst nicht eindämmen und erlitt schreckliche Todesopfer. Die Pro-Kopf-Zahl in einigen Ländern wie Großbritannien, Italien und Spanien ist nach wie vor etwas höher als in den USA. Diese Länder haben es jedoch geschafft, das Virus bis zum späten Frühjahr unter Kontrolle zu bringen. Ihre Fallzahlen sanken.
In den USA brach das Virus später aus – doch die Fallzahlen sanken nie. In den letzten sechs Monaten wurde fast täglich bei mindestens 20.000 Amerikanern das Virus diagnostiziert. "Europa hat die harte Lektion gelernt und Abhilfemaßnahmen angewendet", sagt Donald. "Wir haben es nicht getan, obwohl wir mehr Warnung hatten."
Dieses Diagramm macht den Punkt:
Als die Pandemie ausbrach, reduzierten die Amerikaner ihre vorbeugende Gesundheit erheblich, und es gibt kaum Anzeichen dafür, dass diese aufgeschobene Behandlung wieder gut gemacht wird.
Die Impfungen gingen im April um fast 60 Prozent zurück, und nach neuen Daten des gemeinnützigen Health Care Cost Institute wurde fast niemand koloskopiert.
Die Daten, die aus Millionen von Krankenversicherungsansprüchen stammen, zeigen ein konsistentes Muster, ob es sich um Prostata-Screenings oder Verhütungsmittel handelte: Die Vorsorge ging in diesem Frühjahr drastisch zurück und hatte sich Ende Juni noch nicht auf ein normales Niveau erholt. Viele Arten solcher Behandlungen waren zu Beginn dieses Sommers noch um ein Drittel rückläufig, wie die jüngsten verfügbaren Daten zeigen, da die Amerikaner weiterhin vorsichtig waren, Krankenhäuser und Arztpraxen zu besuchen.
Die Amerikaner suchten weiterhin nach Pflege, die sie nicht vermeiden konnten – beispielsweise blieben die Krankenhauseinweisungen für die Geburt stabil -, vermieden jedoch die Pflege, die sie aufschieben konnten. Invasivere präventive Verfahren wie Mammogramme und Koloskopien zeigten den größten Rückgang.
Die Koloskopien, die in der Regel zur Früherkennung von Darmkrebs eingesetzt werden, gingen Mitte April um 88 Prozent zurück und lagen Ende Juni noch um 33 Prozent unter dem Normalwert. Mammogramme, die auf dem Höhepunkt der Pandemie um 77 Prozent gefallen sind, sind immer noch um 23 Prozent gesunken.
Critical childhood vaccinations for hepatitis, measles, whooping cough and other diseases also declined significantly, a trend that had already begun to worry pediatricians earlier in the pandemic. Of particular concern, measles vaccinations fell 73 percent in mid-April and were still down 36 percent at the end of June.
But one preventive service stayed relatively steady through the pandemic: pregnancy-related ultrasounds. Those declined slightly in March and April but never fell more than 20 percent below 2019 levels. Insertions of IUDs, one of the most effective birth control methods, declined like other preventive care — raising the possibility of an increase in pregnancies in coming months.
Reporting was contributed by Sarah Almukhtar, Aurelien Breeden, Kenneth Chang, Choe Sang-Hun, Emily Cochrane, Abdi Latif Dahir, Marie Fazio, Emma G. Fitzsimmons, Michael Gold, Emma Goldberg, Peter S. Goodman, Sophie Hardach, Javier C. Hernández, Jonathan Huang, Mike Ives, Sarah Kliff, David Leonhardt, Dan Levin, Patricia Mazzei, Benjamin Mueller, Saw Nang, Richard C. Paddock, Roni Caryn Rabin, Campbell Robertson, Dana Rubinstein, Karan Deep Singh, Megan Specia, Jim Tankersley, Kate Taylor, Sui-Lee Wee and Noah Weiland.